Risk, trust and possibility: year-turn thoughts on news and trends

Written by Natalia Smalyuk

Each year has a story. Some of it is filtered through the news. Most stays in the hearts of those who’ve lived through its highs and lows. During the holidays, I thought back about the story of 2023, a cup of coffee in my hand and a golden retriever pup at my feet. This blog is my take on what made news and what clues it might hold about risk and trust in the new year.

The news drop of 2023

With several wars grinding on, the rubble of damaged buildings is a familiar image on the screens. It takes a moment to catch up on where the footage is from.

Some news looks surreal. A Soviet-designed military helicopter, reportedly with a Palestinian flag on its fuselage, lands on the deck of a car carrier in the Red Sea. A commandos armed with AK-47 rifles takes control of the ship.

Surreal as it is, this story is a new iteration of a centuries-old crisis. Pirates! Its modern implications: ships diverted from the fastest routes to their destination, energy supplies disrupted, millions of dollars added to the costs, and ultimately higher prices (on everything) hitting consumer wallets.

When I worked at Canadian Tire, a major Canadian retailer, over 20 years ago, the name of the game was just-in-time delivery. Now, it’s the security of supply chains.

This new world is expensive. And increasingly fragmented.

Not knowing much about the crisis in the Red Sea, I wonder if a geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan has a point. In his book “The end of the world is just the beginning,” he talks about an emerging security vacuum in the seas as one of the consequences of the “collapse of globalization.”

Reducing their vulnerability to unfriendly regimes, countries like Canada are pulling back from adversarial relationships.

And we are not alone shifting trade to like-minded partners in what might be a new configuration of the world.

Another headline that caught my eye: Russian bank wins South African refinery deal as BRICS expands. Originally created by Brazil, Russia, India and China, the BRICS added South Africa in 2010 and, in 2023, accepted membership requests from Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Ethiopia, Argentina and the United Arab Emirates. Unsure what to make of this story, I wonder if it fits in the theory of the growing like-minded alliances.

Thinking ahead: geopolitical risks and wars

Clients wonder what risks they should be paying attention to in 2024. While each organization’s crisis capabilities have to work for its unique context, I believe three families of crises should be on the radar of each leadership team: 1) Geopolitical. 2) Digital. 3) Climate.  

The most visible and tragic evidence of the geopolitical risk is wars. Rippling across the oceans, they take a horrible toll on everyone they touch.

In Canada, organizations are confronted with tough questions. How do they support employees with loved ones in the war zones, hurting and unsure how to talk about their experience with colleagues who can’t relate to it?

What public position, if any, do leaders take on the issues that are important to their customers, shareholders and employees? What if their stakeholders are divided on what’s the right thing to do, say or believe?

Sentiment swings still take leaders by surprise. Not saying anything on the issues employees feel strongly about could be taken as a sign of not caring or, worse, being on the wrong side. Overdoing the statements of solidarity may seem insincere if words are not matched with meaningful actions. 

Digital risks and AI

In 2023, generative AI was a clear headline winner.

In a recent blog, I shared my excitement about the promise of super-intelligent systems in such areas as healthcare where they can save lives. However, as we hear more about the giant leaps of AI in 2024, it’s important to remember that technological breakthroughs may backfire if organizations don’t do their homework on risk.

A consumer tech outlet CNET broke news for inaccurate stories written with the help of AI bots. Lawyers responding to a Manhattan federal court judge blamed ChatGPT for the fictitious research in a court filing.

When stakeholders see more damage than benefit, they lose trust.

Climate risks and firsts

Last but not least, the climate risk family saw many “firsts” in 2023.

In April, global ocean temperatures hit an all-time high of 21.1 degrees Celsius.

Walking to a conference in early June, I was admiring a hazy sunrise. Then it dawned on me: that’s smoke from the wildfires. Chocking much of Canada and the United States for weeks, they torched 16.5 million hectares of land (an area larger than Greece).

Then, the World Meteorological Organization and the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service declared July the hottest month on record.

When systems of highly interactive problems collide, the result is what my mentor and crisis management expert Dr. Ian Mitroff calls a “wicked mess.” There’s no way of knowing what comes next. A mega storm? A glacial flood? An onslaught of climate refugees no one is prepared for? It’s tempting to settle into a reactive mode of crisis management.

Unfortunately, if there’s any certainty in this tricky field, it’s that ad hoc approaches don’t work. If my client experience is any indication, when a TV van parks in front of the office, it’s too late to start drafting a media statement.

Proactive crisis management: connecting the dots between risk and trust

Organizations open to proactive, systemic crisis management might be wondering where to start. There’s a simple answer. Just start somewhere.

In crisis training workshops, I run a risk assessment exercise that takes half an hour to complete. One breakout group brainstorms the top potential types of crises that, in their opinion, are the most probable in their organization. The other dives into the most potentially damaging scenarios. When participants look at the flipcharts of both groups, they start to align on the core threats. These scenarios are a perfect jumping off point to build a robust crisis portfolio.

Often, leaders see the value of such crisis exercises not just in mapping out what can go wrong and how to get it right, but also in overcoming the tendency of the functional heads to “stay in their lane.” Coming together as one team with diverse perspectives helps set the right psychological conditions to think systemically – across the “lanes” – connecting the dots between risk and trust.

What’s labelled as a “PR issue” could be a symptom of a deeper problem with strategic, leadership, operational, cultural, HR, legal, reputational and other dimensions. For example, layoffs were a big part of 2023. When leaders think in terms of strategy, the narrative could be getting costs under control. If they connect risk and trust, they might recognize that allocating bonuses after layoffs may raise a few eyebrows. 

Clues and inspirations for 2024

So, what clues might 2023 hold for 2024?

During the holidays, friends heard me complain about the lack of movies about space (I love science fiction). In my “Mastering the soundbite” training, there’s a slide with inspirational “golden nuggets,” where John F. Kennedy’s “we choose to go to the moon” quote is next to Neil Armstrong’s “One small step for man.”

Well, here’s one headline that brought a smile to my face in 2023: Artemis II mission highlights busy stretch for Canadian astronauts.

In his address to the Canadian Parliament, the U.S. President Joe Biden spoke about returning to the Moon (“together”). More importantly, he tapped into the ambiguity on both sides of the border: “Can we still do big things?” His answer: “We sure in hell can.” 

And here are the golden nuggets I am adding to my inspirational slide: “Ladies and gentlemen, we’re living in an age of possibilities.” “Nothing is beyond our capacity.” 

I got my cue for 2024. Possibility. A belief that we can reach beyond the horizon. Communicators can do great things.

I am grateful for the privilege to lead and support meaningful projects with amazing clients and partners in 2023. Crisis resilience training. Stakeholder engagement. Pushing the envelop with powerful story-telling. Counseling leaders to navigate complex decisions. Empowering diverse spokespeople to participate in the conversation.

Cheers to more opportunities to do great things in 2024. Happy New Year!!

NBAU Consulting offers strategic communication, stakeholder engagement and crisis leadership services to tell the right story, facilitate understanding and build resilience. What is NBAU? Not Business As Usual. Why NBAU? Because there’s no such thing as business as usual for leaders who think ahead and see a landscape of opportunity – and risk – across the unchartered global space.